Blogging on Meds

It seems the Horn and, in particular, Somalia, are always “on the brink”. But suffering from years of war, famine, and the complete absence of any type of government, it’s no wonder Somalia is constantly in a fragile state, and one of the most — if not the most — dangerous places in the world for aid workers, foreign or otherwise.

The NY Times ran an amazing story this weekend on the imminent collapse of the Somali “government” (or Transition Federal Government that the US and its Ethiopian proxies installed after the December invasion) based on a number of factors that are identical to the ones preceding the country’s ravaging famine in the 1990s: war, drought, displacement, and skyrocketing food prices. Government troops and Islamist forces are clashing on the streets over grain — a commodity that has, along with rice and flour, become rare worldwide — while Jeffrey Gettleman reports that:

“The Islamists have been gaining recruits, overrunning towns and becoming bolder… By its own admission, the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia is on life support.”

In some of the best lines of the articles, Gettlemen says that the government, as illegitimate as it may be (those are my words), is currently left with about “$18 million a year to run a state of nine million of the world’s neediest, most collectively traumatized people…And a failed state may be a generous term. In many ways, Somalia is not a state at all, but more a lawless space between its neighbors and the sea… Sometimes it seems that if anything binds this country together, it is scar tissue.”

While minuscule compared to the orchestrated muddling of Middle Eastern factions in the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq, further botching by a presidential front-runner of the clear divisions that exist between “insurgent elements” and “rogue states” in the area is not something we need.

The Washington Post reports today: “Sen. John McCain, in the midst of a trip to the Middle East that he hoped would help burnish his foreign policy expertise, incorrectly asserted Tuesday that Iran is training and supplying al-Qaeda in Iraq, confusing the Sunni insurgent group with the Shiite extremists who U.S. officials believe are supported by their religious brethren in the neighboring country.”

Rad. As the rhetoric against Iran increases, linking the Ayatollah-led state to Al-Qaeda [in Iraq] is not only stupid, but dangerous.

McCain said: “We continue to be concerned about Iranian [operatives] taking al-Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back.” (WP)

He continued, saying it is “…common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran; that’s well known.”

Bush said in 2004: “The reason I keep insisting that there was a relationship between Iraq and Saddam and al Qaeda [is] because there was a relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda.”

Sounds like a blatant effort to drum up support for military action against Iran to me.
Note: On the campaign trail last summer, McCain thought it appropriate to perform his own rendition of the Beach Boys song “Barbara Ann”, substituting the chorus with “Bomb Iran”.

Vote Obama.

Sorry this is a bit late, but…

BBC reported yesterday that “United Nations police in Kosovo have been forced to withdraw from Serb areas in the divided city of Mitrovica after clashes with Serb demonstrators” while Al Jazeera reported that “at least three UN vehicles were attacked and one set on fire as protesters broke doors and freed about 10 Serbs detained in the court raid.”

One international soldier is reported to have been shot, while the explosion from a hand grenade injured dozens others. Reuters reports that NATO troops claim to have come under “automatic gunfire”, which is a far cry from rock-throwing and may be an indication demonstrators are being supplied with more sophisticated weapons. Serbia’s B92 media reports up to 70 civilians were injured, and UN troops were forced to withdraw.

The clashes began on Friday when hundreds of Serb demonstrators seized the UN-run court in Mitrovica, the scene of a number of incidents of ethnic violence over the past few years, and occupied it over the weekend. A dawn raid yesterday by UN forces re-took the courthouse, only to spark the subsequent riots which signify the worst violence yet since Kosovo declared its independence on February 17.

While it’s no surprise the UN bailed or, according to some reports, was “asked to leave”, allowing NATO to patrol the flashpoint area might be an even more dangerous prospect. The Western military alliance bombed heavily both Kosovo and Serbia less than 10 years ago, and resentment remains high. Case in point: the unrest also falls on the anniversary of violence four years ago that left up to 19 people dead.

Adding to the fun, last week the Serbian government dissolved; rifts among the governing coalition prompted Serb prime minister Vojislav Kostunica (a hardliner) to call snap elections on May 11. If clashes continue, the elections may become a de-facto referendum on Kosovo and the West’s recognition of it, ushering in an ultra-nationalist government willing to take a more aggressive stance on what many Serbs consider to be the “cradle” of the Serb nation.

Either way, it’s going to be interesting…

The Caucasus region has long been an area of strategic importance.

Flanking both the Black and Caspian Seas, not only does it have its own generous resource endowment (statistics put the region’s oil reserves at anywhere from 17 billion proven to 95 billion potential barrels), but acts as a vital transit corridor for energy coming to and from Russia (sound familiar?).

For this reason, and a number of others, the region has been consistently volatile. It’s also populated mainly by — yep, you guessed it — Muslims. But two recent presidential elections — in Russia and Armenia, respectively — and a row with Azerbaijan have spotlighted both the importance of the Caucasus and its potential for further violence.

Dmitry Medvedev came to power in Moscow on Sunday as a well-groomed Putin successor. And just as the war in Chechnya in the North Caucasus defined Putin’s presidency, so will the handling of the growing conflict in the adjacent provinces mark Medvedev’s.

The violence has all but dissipated in Chechnya with the installation of Putin “strongman” Ramzan Kadyrov, and, The Economist lauds in its February 28 issue, “You can fly to Grozny, take a taxi and go to a restaurant.”

But while Grozny rebuilds from 13 years of ferocious war, a spate of violence has recently plagued Chechnya’s North Caucasus Muslim neighbors.

“The true legacy of Russia’s war on Chechnya is that its violence has spread to other Muslim republics, notably Dagestan and Ingushetia,” writes The Economist.

Dagestan borders the Caspian Sea, while Ingueshetia is wedged between Chechnya and North Ossetia. Both are ripe with energy and oil resources. Both are now the scene of routine bombings, ambushes and politically and ethnically motivated murder.

The latest attack included twin bombings on policemen in Dagestan coordinated for Medvedev’s election day.

The Economist writes:

“The Russian army has resorted to brutal mop-up operations involving methods little different from those of the terrorists. The result: a republic that was mostly peaceful at the beginning of Mr Putin’s presidency now resembles a war zone. ‘Instead of solving problems, they suppress them,’ says Ms Sokiryanskaya [of Russia's largest human rights group]. Inevitably, they re-emerge.”

On the Caucasus’ south side, Armenia’s February presidential election set-off days of protests in the capital in which eight people were killed. Demonstrators decry the victory of another of the region’s hand-picked replacements, Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian, who won the poll said to have both widespread irregularities and serious flaws.

A 20-day state of emergency was called in the mainly Christian Caucasus republic, and Putin expressed his support for the state crackdown on demonstrations this week.

AP reports on March 6: “Putin ‘expressed certainty that the efforts made by the Armenian leadership will serve to provide for constitutional order,’ the Kremlin said.

The bloodshed was the worst political crisis to hit this strategically located, volatile former Soviet land in nearly a decade. Armenia has close ties with Russia, which maintains a military base in the Caucasus Mountain nation.”

Also this week (Reuters):

“Azerbaijan accused Armenia of deliberately stoking unrest in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, following a shootout there in which Azerbaijan said 15 soldiers had been killed.”

The death toll would mark the worst clash in recent years between the two Caucasus nations that are still technically at war with eachother.

Nagorno-Karabakh is home to a majority ethnic Armenian population, and broke off from Azerbaijan in the late 1980s sparking a war that killed over 35,000. It remains a part of southwestern Azerbaijan, but has since been put under mainly ethnic Armenian control.

Azeris claim the move to stoke violence was intended to deflect international attention from Armenia’s political debacle.

Reuters is sure to emphasize:

“Azerbaijan is a major oil producer and home to important gas and oil pipelines carrying energy from the Caspian Sea to world markets, which pass close to the border with Armenia. Armenia has no oil production or pipelines running through its territory.”

Check out “Oil and the Battle for Chechnya” which does an exceptional job of tracking the region’s burgeoning geostrategic significance through media and institutional reports.

Thursday saw the arrest in Thailand of one of the world’s largest arms dealers — no, not Lockheed CEO Bob Stevens — but former Soviet air officer Viktor Bout.

Believed to have trafficked billions of dollars worth of weapons to conflict-ridden nations like Afghanistan, Angola, Congo, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Sudan, Bout is also said to have inspired the 2005 film Lord of War, which featured Nicholas Cage as an unscrupulous international arms dealer admittedly fueling conflicts around the world.

I have no sympathy for arms dealers. But here’s what I don’t get.

“His capture was prompted by a tip from the United States in connection with the procurement of weapons for the Colombian FARC rebels”, reads the IHT’s Friday edition.

“His arrest in Thailand came after a Colombian military raid into Ecuador on Saturday, during which the Colombian Army killed 24 guerrillas and obtained a computer laptop belonging to a senior FARC rebel commander. It was not immediately clear whether the arrest and the seizure of information on the laptop were related.”

It goes on to say: “Colonel Petcharat [Sengchai of Thailand's Crime Suppression Division] said Bout… was wanted for ‘the procurement of weapons and explosives for Colombian rebels,’ referring to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC…”

Did I miss something?

So last week’s supposedly independent cross-border raid into Ecuador by Colombian forces in pursuit of FARC rebels — which has sparked a flurry of diplomatic rows and military stand-offs on Latin America’s borders, as well as an escalation in US-Chavez tensions — just happened to give US intelligence the evidence they needed to nab Bout?

Neither the IHT nor, after a quick search, any of the other respectable news agencies, even blinked an eye.

The US government gives Colombia military aid to the tune of $500 million each year — more money than any other country in the region — putting the narco-plagued nation as the 6th highest recipient of US military funding after Israel, Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, and Afghanistan. Between 1999 and 2004, Colombia received over $3.5. billion in military aid, according to the US-based Center for Public Integrity.

While Latin America seems to have recently shrugged off US hegemony in the region, there’s noway that cross-border raid wasn’t orchestrated, funded, and approved by the US to a) allow Colombia to nail Raul Reyes, a senior FARC leader, and b) get the US the clincher it needed to seize Bout.

I can’t also help but assume US officials are reveling in the forum this has given them to face off Chavez, whose provocative moves in the aftermath of the raid have launched a regional diplomatic crisis.

Keep it up, Chavez, and we might just have to stage a coup to stabilize the region. Seriously.

An Op-Ed in the IHT/NY Times writes:

“…the U.S. should be prepared for a more active approach if events escalate. The region might object to a direct U.S. military intervention, but Washington might consider quietly stepping up the supply of aid, training, and equipment to Colombia.”

Federal prosecutors in New York have yet to unseal the criminal charges they’ve brought against the Russian arms dealer. Bout is wanted in a number of countries, including Thailand and Belgium among others, but US attorneys say it is likely they will get a crack at him in court.

Charges will most likely center around Bout’s alleged supply of weapons to Al-Qaeda and Taliban forces, which he categorically denied on a Moscow radio station several years ago.

“The accusations against me,” Bout said, “resemble more a script for a Hollywood thriller.”

“Gunboat diplomacy” has got to be my favorite way of flexing military muscle. Forget the sanctions, forget the covert ops, forget doing somersaults with AK-47s on your enemy’s border — just park out front and sit there. It’s so 19th-century Pax Britannia.

But yes, we still do it. Normally US warship stationing is rarely reported on, unless we’re conjuring up stories about the menace of Iranian speedboats, and it serves the purpose of portraying an always benevolent US empire under threat from an increasingly hostile Middle East.

The re-positioning of US warships off the coast of Lebanon showed up on the radar this week therefore not as an arrogant intimidation tactic (thank you, Al Jazeera, for reporting it as such), but on account of Hezbollah’s apparently fiery comments that the gunboats were a threat and they would not be cowed.

The US has sent three warships, including the USS Cole, to take up positions off the coast of Lebanon in a show of force over the ongoing political deadlock in the country. A senior US official said Washington was ‘very concerned’ about the situation in Lebanon and called the move ’support for regional stability.’

Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese MP from Hezbollah, called the US decision to position the warships off the coast ‘an attempt to spark tension’. “We don’t succumb to threats and military intimidation practised by the United States to implement its hegemony over Lebanon.”

Of course they’re a threat. How is that provocative? But drawing up a defiant Hezbollah, ready to throw its rhetoric at the mighty US, sure does make it easy to set the stage for another proxy war in Lebanon, with US-backed Israel and the Nasrallah-led Shiites duking it out in the south. The move is an obvious attempt to keep our Maronite mercenaries in power to the chagrin of the Syrian mukhabarat.

It should be noted the last time the Americans stationed their assault ships off Lebanon in the midst of the country’s 15-year civil war in 1983, they ended up shelling Beirut and retreating with their tails between their legs after 241 serviceman were killed in one of the first and most prominent Shiite-inspired suicide bombings in the region.

In a twist of irony, the USS Cole was deployed, having been put back into service after a hole was blown in its side by suicide bombers at the Yemeni port city of Aden.

To read an excellent account of Lebanon’s political and civil plight since the 1970s, including honest reporting on US, Israeli, Syrian, Palestinian and Iranian meddling in the tiny Mediterranean nation, pick up longtime Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk’s “Pity the Nation: Lebanon at War” (the first edition).

This post is essentially just to get out this awesome photo taken in Moscow by James Hill of The New York Times.

Russia’s presidential elections are Sunday and it’s fairly obvious Putin’s established autocracy, in whatever form, will prevail. Putin hand-picked his successor, Dmitri Medvedev, to head up the Kremlin’s ticket. While Medvedev is largely expected to govern with a more “gentle hand” than did Putin with his iron first, many cast him as a puppet of the former KGB chief who will simply “labor according to Putin’s command.”

What’s more, there’s virtually no question about Medvedev’s success at the polls this weekend. The NY Times speculates that the three other marginal candidates — hailing from the communist, “democratic”, and ultra-nationalist parties, respectively — are nothing more than a troika, assembled by the Kremlin to create the appearance of a race. Polls put them together gaining less than 20 percent of the vote. Putin has also announced plans to run as Prime Minister. Nothing new.

I say bring back the reds.

The international media is giving little play to Kosovo this week (a skim through BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera International sites turned up virtually nothing), and maybe rightly so. The declaration has been made, no embassies have been torched since Thursday, and without Milosevic at the helm, who is going to march in the ultra-nationalists in the name of a greater Serbia?

Hopefully the days of the so-called Balkan powder keg are dying — where wars are fought under the pretense of religion, territory, and ethnic purity — and Kosovo’s “ethnic cleansing” of the 1990s will be the last we’ll hear of the region in turmoil.

But a far more interesting story is playing out in Kosovo right now, one that the media is largely missing and that could have major implications for how things play out in the Balkans.

The international newswires, for their part, have been fairly consistent in reporting from the ground, and several decent pieces have been picked up by the International Herald Tribune. In this case, it’s not so much the writing, but simply the documentation of events.

It’s the “creeping” partition of northern Kosovo by ethnic Serbs. It’s true, Serb tanks aren’t rolling into Mitrovica (yet), but this division is a grassroots one — one that makes it all the more genuine and all the more likely to spark violence later on down the line.

I hate being alarmist and writing unending predictions of bloodshed. We shouldn’t assume they’ll start killing each other just because it’s the Balkans. But the groundwork is being laid for another territorial-cum-ethnic conflict in Kosovo and southern Serbia, whether it comes in several months or 50 years.

Per the Reuters story on Zupce, makeshift border posts are being set up by ethnic Serbs. Robinson writes:

“In Zupce, Serb cars without registration plates drove slowly up to the ‘checkpoint’ every 20 minutes, turning and driving back below Serbian flags flying from trees. A policeman waved through a Serb car, and stopped an Albanian to check his papers.”

This certainly isn’t the most frightening piece of news, but I think it’s an indication of what’s to come: an ethnic-based division.

Danish soldiers set up camp in the northern Albanian village of Cabra — complete with armored vehicles — that, if Kosovo were partitioned, would be severed from the rest of Kosovo by majority Serb areas.

Ethnic Albanian police forces have yet to return to man the border posts burned by Kosovo Serbs last week, and Serb policeman, who make-up part of Kosovo’s “multiethnic” police force, coordinate their movements through the United Nations mission rather than Pristina.

Hardline Serb leaders in the north are pledging more violence if Thaci’s government exercises jurisdiction, and even Pristina hasn’t been forthcoming about how it intends to assert control over Serb-dominated areas.

AP reports:

“Milan Ivanovic, a Serb leader from the northern Kosovo town of Kosovska Mitrovica, said Kosovo’s new leaders were wrong to assume that they might assert the authority of the new state in the predominantly Serb area. About 50,000 Serbs in the north have pledged not to recognize the new state and to continue to consider themselves part of Serbia.”

While talk is cheap, as they say, and an all-out conflict in an internationally-supervised nation seems unlikely, we should continue to watch as the Serbs set up checkpoints — albeit flimsy ones — drive out Albanian bureaucrats and policeman, and slowly establish their defacto Serb Kosovar entity in the north.

Not only will it thwart the construction of a viable Kosovo — if such a thing existed — but is likely to become a major factor in the establishment of a pro-Western, energy-rich satellite in the Balkans, and might explode as part of the Euro/US-Russian resource wars expected to play out in the region in the coming decades.